# Some Rhino popping Math

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## Some Rhino popping Math

Want to hose that Rhino or Razorback with some BS4 S9 shooting? Here's your odds.

p(wreck/destro 1 shot) = 14%

p(wreck/destro 2 shots) = 26%

p(wreck/destro 3 shots) = 36%

p(wreck/destro 1 tl-shot) = 19%

p(wreck/destro 2 tl-shot) = 34%

Anything else you guys want me to math-hammer?

p(wreck/destro 1 shot) = 14%

p(wreck/destro 2 shots) = 26%

p(wreck/destro 3 shots) = 36%

p(wreck/destro 1 tl-shot) = 19%

p(wreck/destro 2 tl-shot) = 34%

Anything else you guys want me to math-hammer?

**Lore Weaver**- Lord of Titan
- Posts : 4609

Join date : 2010-01-05

## Re: Some Rhino popping Math

BS4 S7 (2 shots Twinlinked) + BS4 S8 (singe shot)

vs

BS4 S7 (4 shots all twinlinked).

If you can do AV 10-14 that'd be super:)

vs

BS4 S7 (4 shots all twinlinked).

If you can do AV 10-14 that'd be super:)

_________________

*Habes obdura si ista sis nugax*- family proverb

**Roland**- Lord of Titan
- Posts : 3544

Join date : 2011-01-26

Location : Saskatoon

## Re: Some Rhino popping Math

BS4 S7 TLx2 + BS4 S8

AV10: 38%

AV10 Open Topped: 56%

AV11: 28%

AV12: 16%

AV13: 3%

AV13 Open Topped: 11%

AV14: Impossibru

BS4 S7 TLx4

AV10: 48%

AV10 Open Topped: 67%

AV11: 34%

AV12: 19%

AV13: Impossibru

AV13 Open Topped: 8%

AV14: Impossibru

Also Discoved... a Single S8 shot has the same chance as wrecking/destroying AV13 Open Topped as AV12.

EDIT: Twin Linked Autocannons are better.

AV10: 38%

AV10 Open Topped: 56%

AV11: 28%

AV12: 16%

AV13: 3%

AV13 Open Topped: 11%

AV14: Impossibru

BS4 S7 TLx4

AV10: 48%

AV10 Open Topped: 67%

AV11: 34%

AV12: 19%

AV13: Impossibru

AV13 Open Topped: 8%

AV14: Impossibru

Also Discoved... a Single S8 shot has the same chance as wrecking/destroying AV13 Open Topped as AV12.

EDIT: Twin Linked Autocannons are better.

**Lore Weaver**- Lord of Titan
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Join date : 2010-01-05

## Re: Some Rhino popping Math

Hmmm I figured the Autocannons woulnd be better, but it tops at 10-11% closer than I thought it'd be.

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*Habes obdura si ista sis nugax*- family proverb

**Roland**- Lord of Titan
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Join date : 2011-01-26

Location : Saskatoon

## Re: Some Rhino popping Math

how about stats for the land Raider Prometheus;

total of 4 TL Heavy Bolters;

12 Str 5 AP 4 TL shots.

total of 4 TL Heavy Bolters;

12 Str 5 AP 4 TL shots.

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**dusktiger**- Lord of Titan
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Age : 31

Location : Saskatoon

## Re: Some Rhino popping Math

12 S5 TL

AV10: 46%

AV10 Open Topped: 68%

AV11 Open Topped: 22%

AV11 Rhino Glance-to-Death: --- 6% --- need to double check my math.

Chances of popping an Ork Trukk or Dark Eldar Raider are pretty good.

AV10: 46%

AV10 Open Topped: 68%

AV11 Open Topped: 22%

AV11 Rhino Glance-to-Death: --- 6% --- need to double check my math.

Chances of popping an Ork Trukk or Dark Eldar Raider are pretty good.

**Lore Weaver**- Lord of Titan
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Join date : 2010-01-05

## Re: Some Rhino popping Math

How quickly the numbers drop for losing a shot or dropping in strength, are really making it apparent why I underestimated Psyflemen for so long.

Am I correct in thinking the number will simply shift for a Psyfleman?

BS4 S7 TLx4

AV10: 48%->67%

AV10 Open Topped: 67%

AV11: 34% ->48%

AV12: 19%->34%

AV13: Impossibru->19%

AV13 Open Topped: 8%

AV14: Impossibru->???

Am I correct in thinking the number will simply shift for a Psyfleman?

BS4 S7 TLx4

AV10: 48%->67%

AV10 Open Topped: 67%

AV11: 34% ->48%

AV12: 19%->34%

AV13: Impossibru->19%

AV13 Open Topped: 8%

AV14: Impossibru->???

_________________

*Habes obdura si ista sis nugax*- family proverb

**Roland**- Lord of Titan
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Join date : 2011-01-26

Location : Saskatoon

## Re: Some Rhino popping Math

Psyfleman is S7 rending, right?

**Lore Weaver**- Lord of Titan
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Join date : 2010-01-05

## Re: Some Rhino popping Math

Str 8. their psybolts just add +1 Str to the weapon.

how about this; assault cannon/autocannon dread:

3 Str 6 rending, 2 TL Str 7 shots

how about this; assault cannon/autocannon dread:

3 Str 6 rending, 2 TL Str 7 shots

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**dusktiger**- Lord of Titan
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Join date : 2010-11-12

Age : 31

Location : Saskatoon

## Re: Some Rhino popping Math

Isn't the assault cannon heavy 4?

(I'll math hammer tomorrow)

(I'll math hammer tomorrow)

**Lore Weaver**- Lord of Titan
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Join date : 2010-01-05

## Re: Some Rhino popping Math

Alright, non Twin-Linked Assault-Cannon + TL Autocannon

BS4, S6 Heavy 4 Rending + BS4 S7 Heavy 2 TL

AV10: 46%

AV10 Open Topped: 67%

AV11: 28%

AV12: 20%

AV13: 8%

AV13 Open Topped: 15%

AV14: 4%

Now, Psyfleman, 4 TL S8 shots (EDIT: Just double checked and this is indeed correct... 31% to pop a ghost ark... FFS)

AV10: 57%

AV10 Open Topped: 77%

AV11: 48%

AV12: 34%

AV13: 19%

AV13 Open Topped: 31%

AV14: Impossibru

How many shots does a Psycannon get? That's the S7 Rending one, right? 2 each, typically 2 per unit?

BS4, S6 Heavy 4 Rending + BS4 S7 Heavy 2 TL

AV10: 46%

AV10 Open Topped: 67%

AV11: 28%

AV12: 20%

AV13: 8%

AV13 Open Topped: 15%

AV14: 4%

Now, Psyfleman, 4 TL S8 shots (EDIT: Just double checked and this is indeed correct... 31% to pop a ghost ark... FFS)

AV10: 57%

AV10 Open Topped: 77%

AV11: 48%

AV12: 34%

AV13: 19%

AV13 Open Topped: 31%

AV14: Impossibru

How many shots does a Psycannon get? That's the S7 Rending one, right? 2 each, typically 2 per unit?

**Lore Weaver**- Lord of Titan
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Join date : 2010-01-05

## Re: Some Rhino popping Math

Close Range Melta vs Turbo Boosted Surfboard Lord!

*drumroll*

17%

*drumroll*

17%

**Lore Weaver**- Lord of Titan
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Join date : 2010-01-05

## Re: Some Rhino popping Math

Now, Psyfleman, 4 TL S8 shots (EDIT: Just double checked and this is indeed correct... 31% to pop a ghost ark... FFS)

AV10: 57%

AV10 Open Topped: 77%

AV11: 48%

AV12: 34%

AV13: 19%

AV13 Open Topped: 31%

AV14: Impossibru

That pretty much does it for me. I have been converted. Psyfle men are broken. Thats a 130 pt unit boys and girls. And this is straight up wrecked/exploded correct? So it doesnt account for multiple WD/Immobilized stacking to a wreck (which lets it kill AV 14).

Compare those results to the plain Rifleman. That is a *5* point upgrade.

Pretty sure my load out for my dreads just changed.

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**Roland**- Lord of Titan
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Location : Saskatoon

## Re: Some Rhino popping Math

Ya, that's straight out wrecked/destroyed.

stacking to kill AV14 would be a different problem, say it's a Landraider with 3 weapons... the chances in a single round of shooting are still 0. You could make it a pillbox, but the odds are extremely low (say 2%... Edit: chances are 0.1%). Even popping it after that would be fairly low. 19% chance of wrecking the pillbox, once you've made it a pillbox. Each shot has a 5% chance of blowing a weapon or immobilizing the thing. 8% chance to immobilize AV14 with all 4 shots.

stacking to kill AV14 would be a different problem, say it's a Landraider with 3 weapons... the chances in a single round of shooting are still 0. You could make it a pillbox, but the odds are extremely low (say 2%... Edit: chances are 0.1%). Even popping it after that would be fairly low. 19% chance of wrecking the pillbox, once you've made it a pillbox. Each shot has a 5% chance of blowing a weapon or immobilizing the thing. 8% chance to immobilize AV14 with all 4 shots.

**Lore Weaver**- Lord of Titan
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Join date : 2010-01-05

## Re: Some Rhino popping Math

On top on the psyflemen being killing machjnes.. theyvare also pain in the ass with their fortitude check.... and more then likely will always be in cover.

i only take one though. because they are to awesome to not take.. but awesome enough i feel guilty taking more then one. Damn you gk codex!

i only take one though. because they are to awesome to not take.. but awesome enough i feel guilty taking more then one. Damn you gk codex!

**System Commander**- System Commander
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## Re: Some Rhino popping Math

Part of the reason I embarked on this quest was to determine the viability of the 260 point Destroyer unit.

That's 2 plain destroyers and 3 heavy destroyers (with, basically, lascannons).

With leftover Stalker Bits, I'm converting 3 of my old destroyers into heavy destroyers.

I've also already converted one to a Destroyer Lord without an Orb. (mmmm beefy wraith unit leader)

That's 2 plain destroyers and 3 heavy destroyers (with, basically, lascannons).

With leftover Stalker Bits, I'm converting 3 of my old destroyers into heavy destroyers.

I've also already converted one to a Destroyer Lord without an Orb. (mmmm beefy wraith unit leader)

**Lore Weaver**- Lord of Titan
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Join date : 2010-01-05

## Re: Some Rhino popping Math

Annihilation Barge vs Rhino -----

19% chance to wreck

Annihilation Barge vs Ork Trukk -----

65% chance to wreck/destroy

19% chance to wreck

Annihilation Barge vs Ork Trukk -----

65% chance to wreck/destroy

**Lore Weaver**- Lord of Titan
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Join date : 2010-01-05

## Re: Some Rhino popping Math

10 Ork Loota's vs a Rhino

50% (well, 49.5, but I rounded as the third digit isn't significant)

That includes factoring the number of shots! *flex*

50% (well, 49.5, but I rounded as the third digit isn't significant)

That includes factoring the number of shots! *flex*

**Lore Weaver**- Lord of Titan
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Join date : 2010-01-05

## Re: Some Rhino popping Math

Is there a way to pop that into an excel file?

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**Roland**- Lord of Titan
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Location : Saskatoon

## Re: Some Rhino popping Math

The formula?

Probably? I'd have to think about it.

It's p(hit) x p(pen) x p(wreck/destroy) = Y

1-Y = Chance to fail

Y^N = Z

(where N is the number of shots, Z represents failure to wreck/destroy)

1-Z = P

P = the chance to wreck/destroy.

Probably? I'd have to think about it.

It's p(hit) x p(pen) x p(wreck/destroy) = Y

1-Y = Chance to fail

Y^N = Z

(where N is the number of shots, Z represents failure to wreck/destroy)

1-Z = P

P = the chance to wreck/destroy.

**Lore Weaver**- Lord of Titan
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Join date : 2010-01-05

## Re: Some Rhino popping Math

p(hit) = BS/6

w/ twinlinked (BS/6)+((1-p(hit))*p(hit))

correct?

w/ twinlinked (BS/6)+((1-p(hit))*p(hit))

correct?

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*Habes obdura si ista sis nugax*- family proverb

**Roland**- Lord of Titan
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Join date : 2011-01-26

Location : Saskatoon

## Re: Some Rhino popping Math

Twin Linked is....

Success + Failure x Success

p(hit) + p(fail) x p(hit)

BS2 = 55%

BS3 = 75%

BS4 = 88%

Another way you can calculate twin-linked is by truth table. Look at the 36 results for two dice, count up the number of results that yield a hit, divide by 36. If you do both, you'll realize why you need to round off the significant digit.

BS2 = 20/36

BS3 = 27/36

BS4 = 32/36

Success + Failure x Success

p(hit) + p(fail) x p(hit)

BS2 = 55%

BS3 = 75%

BS4 = 88%

Another way you can calculate twin-linked is by truth table. Look at the 36 results for two dice, count up the number of results that yield a hit, divide by 36. If you do both, you'll realize why you need to round off the significant digit.

BS2 = 20/36

BS3 = 27/36

BS4 = 32/36

**Lore Weaver**- Lord of Titan
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Join date : 2010-01-05

## Re: Some Rhino popping Math

New Ork Dakkajet vs Rhino

23% chance to pop. 41% if you call a WAAAAGH

23% chance to pop. 41% if you call a WAAAAGH

**Lore Weaver**- Lord of Titan
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Join date : 2010-01-05

## Re: Some Rhino popping Math

Twin-linked Heavy Gauss Cannon vs Focused Heat Ray.

**Planes**- Lord of Titan
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