Some Rhino popping Math

Want to hose that Rhino or Razorback with some BS4 S9 shooting? Here's your odds.

p(wreck/destro 1 shot) = 14%
p(wreck/destro 2 shots) = 26%
p(wreck/destro 3 shots) = 36%
p(wreck/destro 1 tl-shot) = 19%
p(wreck/destro 2 tl-shot) = 34%

Anything else you guys want me to math-hammer?

BS4 S7 (2 shots Twinlinked) + BS4 S8 (singe shot)
vs
BS4 S7 (4 shots all twinlinked).

If you can do AV 10-14 that'd be super:)

BS4 S7 TLx2 + BS4 S8
AV10: 38%
AV10 Open Topped: 56%
AV11: 28%
AV12: 16%
AV13: 3%
AV13 Open Topped: 11%
AV14: Impossibru

BS4 S7 TLx4
AV10: 48%
AV10 Open Topped: 67%
AV11: 34%
AV12: 19%
AV13: Impossibru
AV13 Open Topped: 8%
AV14: Impossibru

Also Discoved... a Single S8 shot has the same chance as wrecking/destroying AV13 Open Topped as AV12.

EDIT: Twin Linked Autocannons are better.

Hmmm I figured the Autocannons woulnd be better, but it tops at 10-11% closer than I thought it'd be.

how about stats for the land Raider Prometheus;
total of 4 TL Heavy Bolters;
12 Str 5 AP 4 TL shots.

12 S5 TL

AV10: 46%
AV10 Open Topped: 68%
AV11 Open Topped: 22%
AV11 Rhino Glance-to-Death: --- 6% --- need to double check my math.

Chances of popping an Ork Trukk or Dark Eldar Raider are pretty good.

How quickly the numbers drop for losing a shot or dropping in strength, are really making it apparent why I underestimated Psyflemen for so long.

Am I correct in thinking the number will simply shift for a Psyfleman?

BS4 S7 TLx4
AV10: 48%->67%
AV10 Open Topped: 67%
AV11: 34% ->48%
AV12: 19%->34%
AV13: Impossibru->19%
AV13 Open Topped: 8%
AV14: Impossibru->???

Psyfleman is S7 rending, right?

Str 8. their psybolts just add +1 Str to the weapon.

how about this; assault cannon/autocannon dread:
3 Str 6 rending, 2 TL Str 7 shots

Isn't the assault cannon heavy 4?

(I'll math hammer tomorrow)

whoops! yes, i meant 4 shots, not 3

Alright, non Twin-Linked Assault-Cannon + TL Autocannon
BS4, S6 Heavy 4 Rending + BS4 S7 Heavy 2 TL

AV10: 46%
AV10 Open Topped: 67%
AV11: 28%
AV12: 20%
AV13: 8%
AV13 Open Topped: 15%
AV14: 4%

Now, Psyfleman, 4 TL S8 shots (EDIT: Just double checked and this is indeed correct... 31% to pop a ghost ark... FFS)

AV10: 57%
AV10 Open Topped: 77%
AV11: 48%
AV12: 34%
AV13: 19%
AV13 Open Topped: 31%
AV14: Impossibru

How many shots does a Psycannon get? That's the S7 Rending one, right? 2 each, typically 2 per unit?

Close Range Melta vs Turbo Boosted Surfboard Lord!

*drumroll*

17%

Now, Psyfleman, 4 TL S8 shots (EDIT: Just double checked and this is indeed correct... 31% to pop a ghost ark... FFS)

AV10: 57%
AV10 Open Topped: 77%
AV11: 48%
AV12: 34%
AV13: 19%
AV13 Open Topped: 31%
AV14: Impossibru

That pretty much does it for me. I have been converted. Psyfle men are broken. Thats a 130 pt unit boys and girls. And this is straight up wrecked/exploded correct? So it doesnt account for multiple WD/Immobilized stacking to a wreck (which lets it kill AV 14).

Compare those results to the plain Rifleman. That is a *5* point upgrade.

Pretty sure my load out for my dreads just changed.

Ya, that's straight out wrecked/destroyed.

stacking to kill AV14 would be a different problem, say it's a Landraider with 3 weapons... the chances in a single round of shooting are still 0. You could make it a pillbox, but the odds are extremely low (say 2%... Edit: chances are 0.1%). Even popping it after that would be fairly low. 19% chance of wrecking the pillbox, once you've made it a pillbox. Each shot has a 5% chance of blowing a weapon or immobilizing the thing. 8% chance to immobilize AV14 with all 4 shots.

On top on the psyflemen being killing machjnes.. theyvare also pain in the ass with their fortitude check.... and more then likely will always be in cover.

i only take one though. because they are to awesome to not take.. but awesome enough i feel guilty taking more then one. Damn you gk codex!

Part of the reason I embarked on this quest was to determine the viability of the 260 point Destroyer unit.

That's 2 plain destroyers and 3 heavy destroyers (with, basically, lascannons).

With leftover Stalker Bits, I'm converting 3 of my old destroyers into heavy destroyers.

I've also already converted one to a Destroyer Lord without an Orb. (mmmm beefy wraith unit leader)

Annihilation Barge vs Rhino -----

19% chance to wreck

Annihilation Barge vs Ork Trukk -----

65% chance to wreck/destroy

10 Ork Loota's vs a Rhino

50% (well, 49.5, but I rounded as the third digit isn't significant)

That includes factoring the number of shots! *flex*

Is there a way to pop that into an excel file?

The formula?

Probably? I'd have to think about it.

It's p(hit) x p(pen) x p(wreck/destroy) = Y

1-Y = Chance to fail

Y^N = Z
(where N is the number of shots, Z represents failure to wreck/destroy)

1-Z = P

P = the chance to wreck/destroy.

p(hit) = BS/6
w/ twinlinked (BS/6)+((1-p(hit))*p(hit))

correct?

Twin Linked is....

Success + Failure x Success

p(hit) + p(fail) x p(hit)
BS2 = 55%
BS3 = 75%
BS4 = 88%

Another way you can calculate twin-linked is by truth table. Look at the 36 results for two dice, count up the number of results that yield a hit, divide by 36. If you do both, you'll realize why you need to round off the significant digit.

BS2 = 20/36
BS3 = 27/36
BS4 = 32/36

New Ork Dakkajet vs Rhino
23% chance to pop. 41% if you call a WAAAAGH

Twin-linked Heavy Gauss Cannon vs Focused Heat Ray.