Probability Lesson

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Probability Lesson

Post  Lore Weaver on Sat Jul 30, 2011 6:05 pm

If I roll snake-eyes on 2D6, what's the probability I'll roll snake-eyes on the next 2D6?

*hugs* to Canadin :-)

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Re: Probability Lesson

Post  Roland on Sat Jul 30, 2011 11:06 pm

1 in 36, assuming the dice roll true.

If *I* am rolling the dice and have said "Anything but snake-eyes.." it raises to 39 in 36, as well as opening a wormhole which sucks all good luck and karma out of the room.

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Re: Probability Lesson

Post  Lore Weaver on Sat Jul 30, 2011 11:30 pm

Roland wrote:1 in 36, assuming the dice roll true.

If *I* am rolling the dice and have said "Anything but snake-eyes.." it raises to 39 in 36, as well as opening a wormhole which sucks all good luck and karma out of the room.

Fantastic answer Roland. I did read a research paper on the differences between rounded dice and straight corner dice, but even in those cases, the difference was extremely slight.

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Re: Probability Lesson

Post  Timbo on Sun Jul 31, 2011 12:51 am

The chances of rolling snake eyes is always 1 in 36. However the chance of rolling consecutive snake eyes is 1 in 36 squared, or 1 in 1296. Those are Vegas odds!

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Re: Probability Lesson

Post  Guest on Sun Jul 31, 2011 12:13 pm

The odds of a random event occuring twice over can either be 1) the square of its chance happening once or 2) the same chance as it occuring once.

Adding up the results of dice rolls should be random in low numbers of events, but even out to a regulated flat top bar graph with enough instances (And the charted sums of 2d6 should approach a bell-curve as the # of events rises). What a great number of events is is debatable, but often in a game at least over a hundred dice should be rolled given the number of times my KCSM attacks in combat and in shooting.

On this basis, my games can be counted as z-event rather than a t-event (since it has at least 30+ degrees of freedom).

T-distributions are effective random, and so if your army has 1 Lazcannon, and 1 Super-character, their chances at rolling are effectively random.

Z-distributions on the other hand curve out to flat bar charts or bell-curves depending on the type of data.

So, the chances of rolling snake eyes after just rolling snake eyes should be 1/36. BUT the chances of rolling snake eyes on your 8th leadership check after having rolled (1,1) lets say for at least 4 of those 7 first trials should be significantly less than 1/36.

AND that is my answer,

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Re: Probability Lesson

Post  Timbo on Sun Jul 31, 2011 12:44 pm

That is a bunch of BS. The chance of rolling snake eyes on any given die roll is 1 in 36. What has been rolled previously on any of the dice means nothing.

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Re: Probability Lesson

Post  Lore Weaver on Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:01 pm

Timbo wrote:That is a bunch of BS. The chance of rolling snake eyes on any given die roll is 1 in 36. What has been rolled previously on any of the dice means nothing.

Correct :-) Previous results have no impact on future results for independent observations.

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Re: Probability Lesson

Post  Guest on Sun Jul 31, 2011 2:07 pm

That depends on whether you consider the multiple rolls occuring within one game as independant or not.

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Re: Probability Lesson

Post  miv305 on Sun Jul 31, 2011 3:02 pm

They are independent as previous rolls do not influence present or future results...

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Re: Probability Lesson

Post  Lore Weaver on Sun Jul 31, 2011 4:45 pm

canadin wrote:That depends on whether you consider the multiple rolls occuring within one game as independant or not.

You're belief doesn't factor in here Canadin. Believing me to have black hair doesn't make it so.

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Re: Probability Lesson

Post  dusktiger on Sun Jul 31, 2011 9:53 pm

awwww, but, but....he made such a long brainy post on mathematics to make himself sound smart guys. Razz though i agree the entire post is bull crap when you consider that the results of a 2D6 roll do not, in fact, affect the results of another 2D6 roll.

that's like saying me hitting you in the head with a stick will affect the result of me hitting you in the head again. no wait, that's a bad example cause it actually "would" affect the second hit as you'd either be disoriented or unconcious....uhm....oh;

it's like flipping a coin. it's always a 50/50 chance of heads or tails. just cause i flip the coin again doesn't mean now it's a 1/3 chance i'll flip a heads. it's still 50/50 probability of the same result. the only circumstance where previous results come into play is when you're determining the overall percentage of which result came up in a finite number of tosses. ie, the percentage of how many times i got a heads result out of flipping the coin 10 times.

But the original statement will stay stay true; there's only a 50/50 chance the result per toss is a heads. there is no Z or T or Y or X variable here in determining that.

the only time exponentials will come into play is when your determining the odds of rolling the same result consecutively over the course of several rolls.

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Re: Probability Lesson

Post  Guest on Mon Aug 01, 2011 11:08 am

WAIIIT A MINUTE!!!

You mean that you guys don't beleive in Guillaume? the French God of Luck and Trolling? geek Razz

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re probiblity

Post  Commander James of the Ul on Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:44 pm

I guess it also depends on how much your dice hate you. I have these little orange dice that i NEVER play any more. The wife and I have spent countless nights rolling them.... And the never ever roll snake eyes for the wife. But when I roll it always rolls snakes eye once outta twelve. Or if I roll some thing like 12 bolter shoots, half WILL BE ones and two's. But when she rolls the same number of dice only one or two will be ones and two's. When we play board games and use those same dice she doesn't even have to try, I lose for her ever time. Drives me nuts.. or retarded I don't know... lol

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Re: Probability Lesson

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